Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
