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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the greatest shock.

But this year's competition is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and longtime strugglers ascending together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still